Looking Back: An Analysis of How Pennsylvania Voted

Pennsylvania's 21 electoral college votes went to President Elect Barack Obama.  3,192,316 Pennsylvanians cast their vote for Obama, giving him the lead over McCain 55% to 44%.  The state had some interesting exit poll numbers, specifically, of voters were asked what their most important issue was in this election, the ones that stated the war in Iraq as their main issue voted  66% for Obama.  While 90% voters who cited Terrorism as their number one issue cast their ballot for McCain.  The communication of campaign messages was extremely evident in the exit polls: When asked what candidate quality mattered most to them, 91% of voters who stated "Can Bring Change" voted for Obama; while voters who stated "Experience" as their most important quality voted for McCain 96% to Obama's 4%.  To view all of the exit polls for Pennsylvania click here.  The McCain campaign went after some crucial counties in Pennsylvania that were either carried by Bush in 2004, or considered swing counties with enough persuadable voters to win McCain the Keystone State.  Among them are Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, & Delaware counties.  Obama won all 5 counties with 57%, 60%, 54%, 54%, and 60%, respectively.  For a list of each Pennsylvania county and how they voted, click here.

Survey says...

CNN just projected Pennsylvania going for Senator Barack Obama.  This is a big loss for the McCain camp.  McCain spent both days of the last weekend there and then deployed Sarah Palin there; they put everything into turning the state red.  The McCain campaign's  internal numbers saw that it was closing a little bit, but the reality is they are not that surprised and are now focusing on Virginia to complete their 270.  

Election Forecast

Pennsylvania has been the  most fascinating state to watch in this election over the past two weeks.  The McCain campaign has declared that the have to have Pennsylvania in order to form their 270, and have spent tremendous amounts of time and money campaigning in Western PA.  The Pennsylvania polls close very soon, and my projection for this state is an Obama victory.  If this happens, then the Republicans will have a difficult time reaching their 270 votes.  Check back to see exactly how Pennsylvania votes.  

Parties in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is shaping up to be the most interesting, and today, the most fought over battleground state in this year's election.  Both candidates started out in Pennsylvania today; John McCain and Sarah Palin teamed up for a rally in Hershey, PA, while Obama held a rally in Chester, PA.  The candidates attacked one another's tax plans during their respective rallies.  During his rainy rally Obama stated "John McCain's ridden shotgun as George Bush has driven our economy toward a cliff, and now he wants to take the wheel and step on the gas."  Obama called for the need for a "new direction".  Below is footage of Senator Obama's rally in Chester, PA, and his speech criticizing McCain's economic policies.

Senator McCain had some comments of his own about Barack Obama's tax plan. McCain said, "It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down," alluding to an interview Monday in which Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Joe Biden referred to the middle class as "people making under $150,000 a year" and an Obama ad that says $200,000 is the threshold for a tax cut.  For a look at what else Senator McCain said about Obama's economic policy, watch the footage below from McCain's rally in Hershey, PA. 

Paint it Red

Even if John McCain gains every current swing state in America, he will still trail behind Barack Obama in electoral votes.  According to CNN's Electoral Map Calculator, the only way for McCain to feasibly win the election, assuming the polls are accurate, is for him to turn a blue state red.  You can use the calculator to see how many electoral votes each candidate would receive, depending on which states the candidates win, respectively.  On the current projection map, when every yellow (battleground) state is turned red, McCain has 261 electoral votes to Obama's 277, thus hypothetically winning Obama the presidency.  In order to try and gain extra electoral votes, the McCain camp is going hard after Pennsylvania and heavily campaigning in areas that were carried by Bush in the 2004 election.  McCain's first post-debate stop was in Pennsylvania to try and focus on these once red counties. An article in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review claimed that McCain's best chance of carrying Pennsylvania is by winning over Western Pennsylvania; and that although it is possible to for McCain to catch up with Obama in PA, it is not likely.  CNN's John King, plots out the current electoral college vote projections, and the uphill climb for John McCain. 

Despite a significant 8 point lead in Pennsylvania for Barack Obama, the McCain camp claims they will not give up on the democratic-leaning state.  

Things are definitely staying interesting in Pennsylvania as the election moves forward.  This blog will keep you updated on the next crucial days in both campaigns in the state of Pennsylvania.  

Tell me how you really feel...

For an in depth look at Pennsylvania's response to both presidential nominees and both vice presidential nominees, along with the state's opinion on the Bush administration and many other issues, check out the National Journal's poll of Pennsylvania.

Also, 51% of voters in Pennsylvania said the economy was their #1 issue.

Governor Ed Rendell says Dems will "carry Pennsylvania comfortably"

The National Journal published an interview with Gov. Rendell of Pennsylvania discussing transportation systems, the economy, and the effect of race in the presidential election. Rendell talked about the need for transportation repair programs to create an economic stimulus and create more jobs. He suggests financing the programs with a federal capital budget, saying that the long term benefits of roads along with the number of American jobs created and the opportunity for American businesses is worth changing the way Washington budgets. Rendell voices the fact that he supports Obama in the election and echos the theme of change throughout the interview. The governor states that he will not only campaign for Obama in Pennsylvania, but he will plot out the areas where Obama and Biden need to go in Pennsylvania to get the issues out there. In the interview, Rendell talks about issues concerning senior citizens. Senator Obama's stance on Medicare, social security, and federal income tax may appeal to senior citizens, and earn him crucial votes. When asked how Obama will win over the white working class that previously favored Senator Clinton, Rendell mentioned Obama's plan to create jobs on American soil and confidentally stated, "When voters understand the issues, Senator Obama will get their votes, and I think we'll carry Pennsylvania comfortably." The issue of race in the election came up, and Rendell admitted that Obama may lose some votes because he's African-American, but insisted that he would gain votes due to the Obama campaign's efforts to register African-Americans and Latinos who never were registered before. We'll see if the exertions of the democrats in Pennsylvania will affect voters. Check back for poll updates and presidential nominee appearences in the Keystone state.